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Technological Forecasting

Технологическое прогнозирование
APPLIED MULTIDISCIPLINARY METHODS: - Data mining; - Qualitative modeling on the basis of weighted di-graphs; - Genetic Algorithms; - Finite Markov chains; - Analysis with estimation procedures for missing data; - Bootstrap method; - Forecasting extrapolation; - Method of mathematical analogy; - Cross-Impact language (KSIM); - The Analytical hierarchy process; - Method of collective expert evaluation; - SWOT-analysis; - Social networks analysis. APPLICATIONS OF RESULTS OF FORECASTING: - metallurgy; - atomic industry; - production of innovative hi-tech types of products; - simulation of prospects of investments for innovation projects; - determination of effective variants of restructuring of industrial companies, estimation of their social consequences; - analysis of markets; - hospitality industry; - infrastructure of cities; - regional development; - development of university complexes; - multiscenarios development of basic spheres of country as elements of external environment. FEATURES OF RESULTS OF PROGNOSES: - maximal authenticity and objectivity; - interconnection of short-term (3-5 years), mid-dle-term (5-7 years), long-term (7-10 years) and superlong-term (10-20 years and more) forecasts; - account of connections of the forecast system with an external environment; - determination of prognoses on different hierar-chical levels (on global-, macro-, mezo-, micro-levels); - consideration of qualitative and quantitative factors; - generation of multi scenarios forecasts; - accordance conception of life cycle of designed organizational and technical systems to the social and economic laws. TYPES OF SERVICES: - prognosis models; - results of analysis of forecasts of development of the large systems; - computer procedures of estimation of efficiency of alternative administrative decisions; - prognosis consulting; - educational seminars of teaching the methods of forecasting; - determination and monitoring of future risks of development of the large systems and external environment. EXPERTS OF THE CENTER (MORE THAN 200 EXPERTS): - deputies and counselors of deputies of Federal Assembly – Parliament of Russian Federation / the State Duma; - official of the Federal ministries and Federal agencies; - specialists, workings in city administrations; - leaders and specialists of industries, firms, research organizations; - university scientists.

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Director of R&D Center of Technological Forecasting, Doctor of Technical Sciences
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Docent, Ph.D.

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